99,489 ha of mature spruce in Latvia's private forests sit inside the bark beetle's working range. Regional damage rates differ by 4.6×. What VMD data shows and what owners need to do before spring.
Bark beetle in 2026
Latvia's private forests contain 325,698 spruce stands covering 394,218 ha. Of those, 96,513 stands totalling 99,489 ha are older than 60 years — the direct working range of the European spruce bark beetle, *Ips typographus*. The average age of a mature private spruce stand is 44–48 years, already well below the official rotation age of 60–80 years. VMD Q2 2026 data shows regional damage rates differ by a factor of 4.6: from 0.33% in Kurzeme to 1.53% in the Centra region. The law permits sanitary felling outside the regular cycle, but bans ordinary spruce felling from April 1 to August 31 — precisely when the beetle is flying and a second generation emerges in July. The practical window for action runs from October to March.
Why spruce in particular
The European spruce bark beetle is a 4–5 mm insect that lives almost exclusively on Norway spruce (*Picea abies*). A male bores under the bark of a weakened tree, creates a mating chamber, and releases a pheromone that draws in females and other males. Six to eight weeks later, a new generation emerges and is ready to attack the neighbouring trees. In a healthy forest the beetle plays a sanitary role and poses no threat to living stands. The problem arises only when several outbreak conditions line up at once.
In Latvia right now, four such conditions are present.
- Climate change. Average winter temperatures in Latvia have risen by roughly 0.4–0.6 °C per decade over the past thirty years. Larvae that used to die in hard winters now overwinter successfully.
- Drought. The dry summers of 2018, 2019 and 2022 left large areas of stressed spruce behind them. A weakened tree cuts resin production — its main physical defence against beetle attack.
- Windthrow. After the storm of November 2023 and the series of December 2024 gales, a large volume of fallen timber is sitting in Latvia's forests. The beetle uses that material as a breeding base for its first generation the following spring.
- Even-aged monocultures. The larger the even-aged spruce block, the higher the density of suitable hosts. VMD data puts 30,383 ha of mature spruce in Kurzeme alone; the other regions each hold roughly 17,000 ha.
This scenario has already run its course in Central Europe. Between 2018 and 2024 the bark beetle destroyed roughly 2.8 million hectares across the Czech Republic, Bavaria and eastern Germany — a volume equivalent to all of Latvia's forest estate.
Risk map by region
VMD Q2 2026 data distributes Latvia's active private spruce estate as follows.
| Region | Spruce stands | Area, ha | Mature (60+), ha | Damaged share, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurzeme | 89,598 | 120,379 | 30,383 | 0.33 |
| Latgale | 70,933 | 81,278 | 17,842 | 1.21 |
| Centra (Riga region) | 51,276 | 61,718 | 17,512 | 1.53 |
| Zemgale | 58,584 | 68,975 | 17,084 | 0.81 |
| Vidzeme | 55,307 | 61,868 | 16,668 | 1.39 |
The picture is contradictory. Kurzeme holds the country's largest single block of mature spruce yet records the lowest damage rate. Centra and Vidzeme are the mirror image: a smaller reserve but a damaged-stand share 4.6 times higher.
These figures are not a real-time density map of the beetle. They show what the VMD inventory officer recorded during the most recent walkthrough. Kurzeme's 0.33% may reflect a genuinely healthy forest — or it may mean the inventory pre-dates the current outbreak. Owners need to track both numbers together: the total pool of mature spruce in the region, and the rate at which damage is growing between successive register releases.
Stumpage value
The 99,489 ha of mature spruce stands over 60 years old in Latvia's private ownership are simultaneously at peak attractiveness to the beetle (bark diameter ≥ 25 cm, reduced defensive capacity), entering the regulatory window for main felling (60–80 years depending on site index), and carrying a meaningful share of each owner's standing capital.
At an average stumpage price of €70–90/m³ and a yield of 350 m³/ha, one hectare of mature spruce on the stump is worth €25,000–32,000. If an outbreak reaches even 5% of the at-risk pool — 5,000 ha — the direct loss to Latvia's private owners is €125–160 million. A shock of that size moves timber prices for two to three years.
Legal framework
Three documents govern spruce felling in Latvia.
- The Forest Law (Meža likums), Section 12, regulates sanitary felling. Beetle-infested stems can be cut outside the standard cycle, but only after VMD certification. Cutting without certification — even when the owner is certain the stand is infested — is a violation, with fines up to €1,400 for an individual.
- Cabinet Regulation No. 935 (Mežaudzes ciršanas noteikumi) sets out the procedure. The key clause: ordinary spruce felling is prohibited from April 1 to August 31. Sanitary felling during the seasonal ban is theoretically possible when the sanitary case is properly documented, but it requires expedited approval.
- The Constitutional Court ruling of April 8, 2024 (No. 2023-13-01) reinstated strict minimum diameters for main felling: D ≥ 30 cm for pine, D ≥ 25 cm for spruce, and so on. Following the ruling, VMD recalculated approximately 5,874 previously approved felling sites. Any permit issued before April 2024 is worth checking — some have been withdrawn.
None of these rules help an owner who waits for summer. Summer is not the time to drive out and take a look with the idea of dealing with things in August. In August, cutting is already too late.
What to do in autumn and winter
The first step is an off-cycle walkthrough in October or November 2026. Three signs of bark beetle on spruce: rust-coloured boring dust at the base of the trunk, peeling bark, and 2–3 mm entry holes in the bark. A single infested stem means 30–50 beetles are already in the surrounding area. Removing that one stem alone does not solve the problem.
Also check when the last VMD inventory took place and compare it against the stand's current age. If the inventory is more than eight years old, the records do not reflect the real situation. Before any valuation or conversation with a buyer, test those numbers against a fresh on-site walkthrough.
Arrange an independent stumpage valuation before talking to any buyer. A buyer who shows up offering to "buy quickly before this reaches your neighbour" is applying fear pricing. A calculated stumpage figure on the table makes that approach ineffective.
Where a stand holds a meaningful share of spruce older than 60 years in a location with reasonable haulage access, planned felling is a defensive move rather than a retreat. The less mature spruce remains in the stand, the smaller the food base for the beetle. Leaving an infested stem for later works in the opposite direction: within 3–6 weeks it becomes the launch point for the next generation, which attacks the healthy trees nearby. By that stage sanitary felling is no longer a choice but a legal obligation.
Hold or sell
Consider a private owner with roughly 80 ha of mixed forest in Zemgale. Spruce makes up about 15% of the area, most of it under 40 years old. The property sits 4 km from a sealed road. The owner visits twice a year and has worked with the same forestry contractor for a decade. That profile supports holding: the spruce share is small, the stems are too thin to attract serious beetle pressure, the logistics are manageable, and the monitoring is already in place.
The case for selling is different in character, not just in degree. Mature spruce at 40% or more of a stand, a remote property where any sanitary response takes weeks to organise, an owner who lives abroad or cannot physically manage the asset — these factors interact. An outdated VMD inventory, more than 7–8 years old, adds a further complication: the owner cannot reliably price what they own, and neither can a buyer without commissioning a fresh survey. In that situation the cost of staying informed can exceed the annual yield, and the decision to sell deserves serious consideration.
In both cases the starting point is the same: an independent stumpage valuation and a three-scenario projection covering the next three years — no outbreak, moderate outbreak, severe outbreak. Without those three numbers, any decision rests on guesswork.
FAQ
If I find bark beetle, am I required to notify VMD?
Yes. Under Section 12 of the Forest Law, the owner is required to notify VMD when a pest or mass disease is identified and to carry out sanitary felling within the prescribed deadline. Notifications go through the personal cabinet at vmd.gov.lv or through the regional branch.
Can I insure the forest against bark beetle?
Forest property insurance is available in Latvia from Latio, BTA and ERGO, but cover for bark-beetle losses is generally limited: the insurer pays only when an epidemic has been formally declared and only if the owner complied with the sanitary-felling rules. Premiums run about €1.50–4.00 per hectare per year. Before signing, ask the insurer for the specific payout triggers in writing.
Which is more profitable: sanitary or planned felling?
In a healthy stand, planned main felling at the minimum diameter yields stumpage of €70–90/m³. Sanitary felling on an infested stem brings €30–55/m³ — part of the volume goes to firewood and chips, and the owner absorbs accelerated haulage costs. Where there is a choice, planned felling before infestation is more profitable than sanitary felling after.
After felling, should I switch directly to pine?
Not necessarily. Pine is more resistant to the beetle but needs poorer soils and an open, sunny site. On the rich, moist soils where spruce typically grows, pine performs worse and grows slower than birch or mixed plantings. The right choice follows from soil site index using the Silava tables, not from the logic of "more beetle, less spruce."
How often is VMD data updated?
The Meža valsts reģistrs is updated quarterly, but a given stand is re-inventoried roughly once every 8–10 years. Between inventories the actual age and condition of a stand can drift from what the register shows. When preparing for a sale or sanitary felling, check register data against a fresh on-site walkthrough.
Sources
- VMD Meža valsts reģistrs, 2026 Q2 release (our sample: 325,698 spruce stands, 394,218 ha of private ownership).
- Cabinet Regulation No. 935 (Mežaudzes ciršanas noteikumi), likumi.lv.
- Meža likums § 12, likumi.lv.
- Constitutional Court of Latvia ruling No. 2023-13-01 of 8 April 2024.
- Forest Europe / Eurostat — climate observation series 1990–2024.
- Latio Mežu Tirgus Pārskats, Q3 2025.
- Czech Forest Service / Bavarian Forest Service — bark beetle outbreak data 2018–2024.
- Silava — site index class tables and regulatory felling ages.
Disclaimer
This article is not legal advice. For specific actions on sanitary felling, fines and approval procedures, consult your regional VMD branch or a specialist lawyer.